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OT: oil - was Re: Honda Civic SI Concept Information
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CarGuru > Honda > OT: oil - was Re: Honda Civic SI Concept Information 15 April 2005 23:03:55
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OT: oil - was Re: Honda Civic SI Concept Information

Michael Pardee 15 April 2005 23:03:55
 "tomb" <me@privacy.net> wrote in message
news:J7L7e.1924$J12­.18@newssvr14.news.p­rodigy.com...> Michael Pardee wrote:> | I'm a conservative myself, and a skeptic of the Hubbert curve. (The> | "superspike" doesn't fit the curve at all.) I also feel it is just> | as well we haven't been conserving gasoline up to this point,> | because conserving a resource that is limited by production (as oil> | is in the contemporary sense) during times of plenty has the same> | effect as wasting it does during times of shortage. Because of the> | free-spending usage in our past we have room to conserve now.>
I don't quite understand your reasoning here. Yes, it's been the beginning> of the end ever since the first barrel, but it *is* a limited resource, > and> thinking about the developing and threshold countries with their billions > of> people all wanting SUVs makes me shiver. The earlier we "get it", the > better> for our children and grandchildren and beyond.>
I have advanced this view a few times before and have never won a convert
(as far as I know), so I'll keep the explanation to this one post.

With all resources there are three possibilities: they can be essentially
boundless, like sunlight; they can be limited by replenishment rate, like
river water; or they can be finite, like oil (or our lives themselves).
Conservation is pointless on the boundless type, a fact of life on the
replenishment type, and inconsequential in the long run on the finite type.
For finite resources, conservation can change the time scale of the resource
depletion but can't affect the shape of things.

But since oil has to be pumped and refined to be useful, and those
facilities are a constructed resource limited by replenishment rate,
conservation in times of plenty results in loss of production margin. When
demand spikes or facilities are out of service a shortage results, and if
usage can't be shifted from areas where it was unimportant it follows that
more critical areas have to be starved to accomodate.

A wag once pointed out "the Stone Age didn't end when we ran out of stones."
Until the market price of auto fuel rises to the point that alternatives can
compete with petroleum, we'll continue to live in the Oil Age. And there are
a lot of alternatives. My expectations are on frozen methane hydrate on the
sea floor. The energy stored in methane hydrate is believed to be greater
than all the drillable oil believed to exist. And we can certainly find ways
to use methane.

Mike


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CarGuru > Honda > OT: oil - was Re: Honda Civic SI Concept Information 15 April 2005 23:03:55
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